tam-sam-som-calculator by deanpeters/product-manager-skills
npx skills add https://github.com/deanpeters/product-manager-skills --skill tam-sam-som-calculator通过提出自适应的、与上下文相关的问题,指导产品经理为产品创意计算总可寻址市场(TAM)、可服务可用市场(SAM)和可服务可获得市场(SOM)。利用此方法构建有据可依的市场规模估算,这些估算基于现实世界的引用、经济预测和人口数据——这对于向投资者推介、确保预算或验证产品-市场契合度至关重要。
这不是一个粗略的猜测——这是一个结构化的、有引用支持的分析,能够经受住审查。
三层市场规模模型:
总可寻址市场(TAM):
可服务可用市场(SAM):
可服务可获得市场(SOM):
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在这里展示您的产品或服务
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使用 workshop-facilitation 作为此技能的默认交互协议。
它定义了:
其他(请说明))本文件定义了特定领域的评估内容。如果存在冲突,请遵循本文件的领域逻辑。
使用 template.md 获取完整的填空结构。
此交互式技能会提出最多4个自适应问题,并在每一步提供编号的、上下文感知的选项。代理会根据先前的回答调整问题。
代理建议:
在我们开始之前,了解产品上下文会很有帮助。如果有的话,请分享:
针对你自己的产品:
如果你还没有产品:
你可以直接粘贴此内容,或者我们可以根据简要描述进行。
为何这有帮助:
如果你已经有人口和每用户平均收入数字(或 TAM 估算),你可以运行一个确定性辅助脚本来计算 TAM/SAM/SOM 并生成一个 Markdown 表格。此脚本不获取数据或写入文件。
python3 scripts/market-sizing.py --population 5400000 --arpu 1000 --sam-share 30% --som-share 10%
代理提问: “根据你提供的(或将描述的)上下文,你正在为哪个问题空间进行市场规模估算?”
提供4个编号示例(用户可以选择编号或自定义):
或者根据你分享的营销材料,自行描述你的问题空间。
提示: 如果你提供了网站文案或营销材料,代理可以从以下短语中提取问题空间:
用户响应: [选择或自定义描述]
代理提问: “你瞄准的是哪个地理区域?”
提供4个编号选项(根据问题空间调整):
或者指定你自己的区域。
用户响应: [选择或自定义]
自适应逻辑:
代理提问: “这个问题空间涉及哪些具体的行业或市场细分?”
提供4个编号选项(根据问题空间 + 地理区域调整):
示例(如果问题 1 = B2B SaaS,问题 2 = 美国):
或者描述你自己的行业细分。
用户响应: [选择或自定义]
自适应逻辑:
代理提问: “受此问题影响的潜在客户是谁?”
提供4个编号选项(根据之前的回答调整):
示例(如果问题 1 = B2B SaaS,问题 3 = 中小型企业服务行业):
或者描述你自己的客户细分(企业特征、人口统计、收入等)。
用户响应: [选择或自定义]
收集回答后,代理生成结构化分析:
# TAM/SAM/SOM 分析
**问题空间:** [来自问题 1 的用户输入]
**地理区域:** [来自问题 2 的用户输入]
**行业/市场细分:** [来自问题 3 的用户输入]
**潜在客户:** [来自问题 4 的用户输入]
---
## 总可寻址市场(TAM)
**定义:** 如果你在问题空间中获取了 100% 的潜在客户,总的市场需求。
**人口估算:** [根据数据源计算]
- **来源:** [引用,例如,“美国人口普查局,2023”]
- **计算:** [展示计算过程,例如,“540 万中小企业 × 1.2 万亿美元收入 = 1.2 万亿美元 TAM”]
**市场规模估算:** $[X] 十亿/百万
- **来源:** [行业报告引用]
- **URL:** [可点击的源链接]
---
## 可服务可用市场(SAM)
**定义:** 你可以用产品实际瞄准的 TAM 细分市场(受地域、企业特征、产品适配性限制而缩小)。
**TAM 的细分:** [来自问题 4 的用户缩小后的细分]
**人口估算:** [计算]
- **来源:** [引用]
- **计算:** [展示计算过程,例如,“120 万家拥有 10-50 名员工的中小企业”]
**市场规模估算:** $[X] 十亿/百万
- **来源:** [引用]
- **URL:** [链接]
**假设:**
- [列出关键假设,例如,“假设 50% 的中小企业有预算购买自动化工具”]
---
## 可服务可获得市场(SOM)
**定义:** 考虑到竞争和市场约束,你在未来 1-3 年内实际可以获取的 SAM 部分。
**实际可获取市场:** [基于市场成熟度、竞争的代理估算]
**人口估算:** [计算]
- **来源:** [引用]
- **计算:** [展示计算过程,例如,“120 万中小企业 × 5% 市场份额(第 1 年)= 6 万客户”]
**市场规模估算:** $[X] 百万
- **假设:**
- [竞争假设,例如,“5 个主要竞争对手,市场领导者占有 15% 份额”]
- [市场进入假设,例如,“销售能力:第 1 年每月 50 个客户”]
- [转化假设,例如,“10% 试用转付费转化率”]
**第 1-3 年预测:**
- **第 1 年:** [X]K 客户,$[X]M 收入(占 SAM 的 5%)
- **第 2 年:** [X]K 客户,$[X]M 收入(占 SAM 的 10%)
- **第 3 年:** [X]K 客户,$[X]M 收入(占 SAM 的 15%)
---
## 数据源与引用
- [来源 1:例如,“美国人口普查局 (2023). 县商业模式. URL: census.gov”]
- [来源 2:例如,“IBISWorld (2023). 专业服务行业报告. URL: ibisworld.com”]
- [来源 3:例如,“Statista (2023). 中小企业软件市场规模. URL: statista.com”]
- [添加所有使用的来源]
---
## 验证问题
1. **TAM 是否与行业报告一致?** [与第三方市场研究比较]
2. **SAM 是否实际可服务?** [你的市场进入策略能否触达这个细分市场?]
3. **考虑到竞争,SOM 是否可实现?** [在 3 年内获得 5-15% 的市场份额是否现实?]
---
## 后续步骤
1. **通过客户访谈验证:** 目标细分市场是否认同这个问题?
2. **与竞争对手进行基准比较:** 现有竞争对手占有多少市场份额?
3. **根据市场进入能力优化 SOM:** 销售/营销能否支持这种增长?
4. **每年更新:** 市场会变化——每年重新评估 TAM/SAM/SOM
---
**你想优化任何假设或探索不同的细分市场吗?**
查看 examples/sample.md 获取完整的 TAM/SAM/SOM 分析示例。
迷你示例摘录:
**TAM:** 540 万中小企业 × $2,000 每用户平均收入 = $108 亿
**SAM:** 120 万中小企业 × $2,000 每用户平均收入 = $24 亿
**SOM:** SAM 的 5% = $1.2 亿
症状: “市场是 500 亿美元”(无来源)
后果: 无法向投资者或高管证明这个数字。
解决方法: 引用行业报告(Gartner, IBISWorld, Statista)并附上 URL。
症状: “SAM 是 50 亿美元,SOM 是 50 亿美元”(假设 100% 获取)
后果: 不切实际的预测——没有市场是零竞争的。
解决方法: SOM 应该是第 1-3 年 SAM 的 1-20%,并考虑竞争因素。
症状: 只有美元金额,没有客户数量
后果: 不知道客户数量就无法制定销售/营销计划。
解决方法: 始终包含人口数量(例如,“120 万家企业”或“第 1 年 6 万客户”)。
症状: TAM/SAM/SOM 计算一次,永不更新
后果: 随着市场变化,数据过时。
解决方法: 每年重新评估。市场增长/萎缩,竞争变化,新数据出现。
症状: “第 1 年 SOM 是 SAM 的 50%”(但没有销售团队)
后果: 考虑到市场进入能力,SOM 不现实。
解决方法: 基于市场进入约束(销售能力、营销预算、转化率)确定 SOM。
skills/positioning-statement/SKILL.md — TAM/SAM/SOM 为“面向 [目标]”的细分市场规模提供信息skills/problem-statement/SKILL.md — 问题空间定义了市场skills/recommendation-canvas/SKILL.md — 市场规模估算为业务成果预测提供信息skills/tam-sam-som-calculator/scripts/market-sizing.py — 确定性 TAM/SAM/SOM 计算器(无网络访问)技能类型: 交互式 建议文件名: tam-sam-som-calculator.md 建议放置位置: /skills/interactive/ 依赖项: 无(独立的交互式技能)
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Guide product managers through calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product idea by asking adaptive, contextually relevant questions. Use this to build defensible market size estimates backed by real-world citations, economic projections, and population data—essential for pitching to investors, securing budget, or validating product-market fit.
This is not a back-of-napkin guess—it's a structured, citation-backed analysis that withstands scrutiny.
The three-tier market sizing model:
Total Addressable Market (TAM):
Serviceable Available Market (SAM):
Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM):
Use workshop-facilitation as the default interaction protocol for this skill.
It defines:
Other (specify) when useful)This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's domain logic.
Use template.md for the full fill-in structure.
This interactive skill asks up to 4 adaptive questions , offering enumerated context-aware options at each step. The agent adapts questions based on previous responses.
Agent suggests:
Before we begin, it's helpful to have product context. If available, please share:
For Your Own Product:
If You Don't Have a Product Yet:
You can paste this content directly, or we can proceed with a brief description.
Why this helps:
If you already have population and ARPU numbers (or a TAM estimate), you can run a deterministic helper to compute TAM/SAM/SOM and generate a Markdown table. This script does not fetch data or write files.
python3 scripts/market-sizing.py --population 5400000 --arpu 1000 --sam-share 30% --som-share 10%
Agent asks: "Based on the context you've provided (or will describe), what problem space are you exploring for market sizing?"
Offer 4 enumerated examples (user can select by number or write custom):
Or write your own problem space description based on the marketing materials you shared.
Tip: If you provided website copy or marketing materials, the agent can extract the problem space from phrases like:
User response: [Selection or custom description]
Agent asks: "What geographic region are you targeting?"
Offer 4 enumerated options (adapted based on problem space):
Or specify your own region.
User response: [Selection or custom]
Adaptation logic:
Agent asks: "What specific industry or market segments does this problem space relate to?"
Offer 4 enumerated options (adapted based on problem space + geography):
Example (if Question 1 = B2B SaaS, Question 2 = US):
Or describe your own industry segment.
User response: [Selection or custom]
Adaptation logic:
Agent asks: "Who are the potential customers affected by this problem?"
Offer 4 enumerated options (adapted based on previous answers):
Example (if Question 1 = B2B SaaS, Question 3 = SMB services sector):
Or describe your own customer segment (firmographics, demographics, income, etc.).
User response: [Selection or custom]
After collecting responses, the agent generates a structured analysis:
# TAM/SAM/SOM Analysis
**Problem Space:** [User's input from Question 1]
**Geographic Region:** [User's input from Question 2]
**Industry/Market Segments:** [User's input from Question 3]
**Potential Customers:** [User's input from Question 4]
---
## Total Addressable Market (TAM)
**Definition:** The total market demand if you captured 100% of potential customers in the problem space.
**Population Estimate:** [Calculated from data sources]
- **Source:** [Citation, e.g., "US Census Bureau, 2023"]
- **Calculation:** [Show math, e.g., "5.4M SMBs × $1.2T revenue = $1.2T TAM"]
**Market Size Estimate:** $[X] billion/million
- **Source:** [Industry report citation]
- **URL:** [Clickable link to source]
---
## Serviceable Available Market (SAM)
**Definition:** The segment of TAM you can realistically target with your product (narrowed by geography, firmographics, product fit).
**Segment of TAM:** [User's narrowed segment from Question 4]
**Population Estimate:** [Calculated]
- **Source:** [Citation]
- **Calculation:** [Show math, e.g., "1.2M SMBs with 10-50 employees"]
**Market Size Estimate:** $[X] billion/million
- **Source:** [Citation]
- **URL:** [Link]
**Assumptions:**
- [List key assumptions, e.g., "Assumes 50% of SMBs have budget for automation tools"]
---
## Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)
**Definition:** The portion of SAM you can realistically capture in the next 1-3 years, accounting for competition and market constraints.
**Realistically Capturable Market:** [Agent's estimation based on market maturity, competition]
**Population Estimate:** [Calculated]
- **Source:** [Citation]
- **Calculation:** [Show math, e.g., "1.2M SMBs × 5% market share (Year 1) = 60K customers"]
**Market Size Estimate:** $[X] million
- **Assumptions:**
- [Competition assumption, e.g., "5 major competitors, market leader has 15% share"]
- [GTM assumption, e.g., "Sales capacity: 50 customers/month in Year 1"]
- [Conversion assumption, e.g., "10% trial-to-paid conversion"]
**Year 1-3 Projections:**
- **Year 1:** [X]K customers, $[X]M revenue (5% of SAM)
- **Year 2:** [X]K customers, $[X]M revenue (10% of SAM)
- **Year 3:** [X]K customers, $[X]M revenue (15% of SAM)
---
## Data Sources & Citations
- [Source 1: e.g., "US Census Bureau (2023). County Business Patterns. URL: census.gov"]
- [Source 2: e.g., "IBISWorld (2023). Professional Services Industry Report. URL: ibisworld.com"]
- [Source 3: e.g., "Statista (2023). SMB Software Market Size. URL: statista.com"]
- [Add all sources used]
---
## Validation Questions
1. **Does TAM align with industry reports?** [Compare to 3rd-party market research]
2. **Is SAM realistically serviceable?** [Can your GTM motion reach this segment?]
3. **Is SOM achievable given competition?** [Is 5-15% market share realistic in 3 years?]
---
## Next Steps
1. **Validate with customer interviews:** Does the problem resonate with target segment?
2. **Benchmark against competitors:** What market share do incumbents have?
3. **Refine SOM based on GTM capacity:** Can sales/marketing support this growth?
4. **Update annually:** Markets shift—reassess TAM/SAM/SOM yearly
---
**Would you like to refine any assumptions or explore a different segment?**
See examples/sample.md for a full TAM/SAM/SOM analysis example.
Mini example excerpt:
**TAM:** 5.4M SMBs × $2,000 ARPA = $10.8B
**SAM:** 1.2M SMBs × $2,000 ARPA = $2.4B
**SOM:** 5% of SAM = $120M
Symptom: "The market is $50B" (no source)
Consequence: Can't defend the number to investors or execs.
Fix: Cite industry reports (Gartner, IBISWorld, Statista) with URLs.
Symptom: "SAM is $5B, SOM is $5B" (assuming 100% capture)
Consequence: Unrealistic projection—no market has zero competition.
Fix: SOM should be 1-20% of SAM in Year 1-3, accounting for competition.
Symptom: Only dollar amounts, no customer counts
Consequence: Can't build sales/marketing plans without knowing customer volume.
Fix: Always include population (e.g., "1.2M businesses" or "60K customers in Year 1").
Symptom: TAM/SAM/SOM calculated once, never updated
Consequence: Stale data as markets shift.
Fix: Reassess annually. Markets grow/shrink, competition changes, new data emerges.
Symptom: "SOM is 50% of SAM in Year 1" (but no sales team)
Consequence: SOM isn't realistic given GTM capacity.
Fix: Ground SOM in GTM constraints (sales capacity, marketing budget, conversion rates).
skills/positioning-statement/SKILL.md — TAM/SAM/SOM informs "For [target]" segment sizeskills/problem-statement/SKILL.md — Problem space defines the marketskills/recommendation-canvas/SKILL.md — Market sizing informs business outcome projectionsskills/tam-sam-som-calculator/scripts/market-sizing.py — Deterministic TAM/SAM/SOM calculator (no network access)Skill type: Interactive Suggested filename: tam-sam-som-calculator.md Suggested placement: /skills/interactive/ Dependencies: None (standalone interactive skill)
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