🇺🇸English

Stock Evaluator (Enhanced)

⚠️ CRITICAL: MANDATORY DELIVERABLES CHECKLIST

Every analysis MUST include ALL of these:

• ☐ Technical Analysis (price action, indicators, key levels, Ichimoku Cloud)
• ☐ Fundamental Analysis (business, financials, competitive position)
• ☐ Advanced Financial Metrics (F-Score, Z-Score, M-Score, Max Drawdown, Value Trap Score)
• ☐ Investor Persona Scores (8 legendary investor frameworks)
• ☐ Valuation Assessment (multiple methods with margin of safety)
• ☐ Bull vs. Bear Case (both sides with balance assessment)
• ☐ Clear Recommendation (BUY / HOLD / SELL with conviction rating)
• ☐ Alternative Candidates (if SELL: provide 3-5 better alternatives)
• ☐ Enhanced Quant-Style Dashboard (React dashboard with 60+ metrics, Ichimoku, investor personas, TOP NEWS, and key notes)

If you cannot complete any item, STOP and ask for clarification.

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⚠️ CRITICAL: DATA INTEGRITY RULES

ZERO FABRICATION POLICY

NEVER fabricate, estimate, or hallucinate ANY numeric data point. Every metric in the dashboard MUST come from:

1. A web search result with a cited source
2. Company filings (10-K, 10-Q, earnings reports)
3. Official financial data providers

If data cannot be found → Use "N/A" or "--"

MANDATORY WEB SEARCHES (minimum per analysis)

You MUST perform these searches before populating the dashboard:

DATA SOURCE HIERARCHY

Use sources in this priority order:

1. Official company filings (SEC EDGAR, company investor relations)
2. Exchange data (NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE official)
3. Verified financial data (Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, MarketWatch)
4. SEC Form 4 (for insider trading ONLY)
5. FINRA/exchange (for short interest ONLY)

PROHIBITED

• Using training knowledge for ANY specific current numbers
• Analyst reports (per user preference)
• Estimates without sourcing
• "Common knowledge" assumptions

HANDLING UNAVAILABLE DATA

CRITICAL: Zero means "zero occurred" - NEVER substitute zeros for missing data.

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STANDARDIZED METRIC LABELS

Use these EXACT labels in the dashboard (matches reference screenshots):

Row 1: PRICE & VALUATION | FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Row 2: GROWTH METRICS | RISK INDICATORS

Row 3: LIQUIDITY & FREE CASH FLOW | INSIDER & SENTIMENT & CLASS

Row 4: QUALITY SCORES | MOAT & OTHER

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STANDARDIZED BENCHMARKS (Single Source of Truth)

Use these EXACT thresholds for color coding:

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Overview

This skill provides institutional-grade evaluation of potential stock investments. Unlike portfolio analysis which reviews existing positions, this skill evaluates stocks you're considering buying or deciding whether to purchase.

The evaluation answers:

• Should I buy this stock?
• At what price should I enter?
• How much should I allocate?
• What's my upside and downside?
• When should I sell?

Default Currency: € (Euro)

All monetary values in the dashboard should be displayed in Euro (€) as the default currency:

• Price: €42.13
• Market Cap: €78.3B
• Analyst Target: €56.45
• Entry/Stop/Target prices: €38, €35, €56
• EPS values: €1.39, €1.91

IMPORTANT: Use REPORTED Growth Rates

For the dashboard metrics "Rev Growth" and "Earn Growth" :

• USE REPORTED GROWTH - not underlying, adjusted, or organic figures
• Reported figures reflect actual GAAP/IFRS numbers including FX, acquisitions, disposals
• This provides a more accurate picture of what investors actually received
• Example: If underlying growth is 7% but reported is 2.2%, use 2.2%
• Same for earnings: Use reported EPS growth, not adjusted EPS growth

Core Purpose

Stock Evaluator is for:

• ✅ Evaluating potential investments BEFORE buying
• ✅ Analyzing watchlist candidates
• ✅ Getting buy/hold/sell recommendations with specific prices
• ✅ Comparing multiple investment opportunities
• ✅ Finding better alternatives to current consideration

NOT for:

• ❌ Reviewing existing portfolio positions (use Portfolio Analyst skill)
• ❌ General stock market questions
• ❌ Stock screening or discovery from scratch
• ❌ Options, derivatives, or crypto analysis

Evaluation Framework

Five Pillars of Stock Evaluation

1. Valuation Assessment

• Is the stock undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued?
• Multiple valuation methods (DCF, relative, Peter Lynch, asset-based)
• Margin of safety requirement (15-30%)
• Fair value estimate with confidence range

2. Quality Analysis

• Business model strength and competitive moat
• Financial health and trends (5-10 year view)
• Management quality and capital allocation
• Industry position and competitive advantages

3. Timing Assessment

• Technical setup and entry points
• Near-term catalysts and events
• Market sentiment and positioning
• Optimal entry price range

4. Position Sizing

• Allocation recommendation (% of portfolio)
• Based on conviction, risk, and diversification
• Maximum allocation limits
• Risk-adjusted sizing

5. Conviction Rating

• Strong Buy : High conviction, clear undervaluation, low risk
• Buy : Good opportunity, reasonable valuation, moderate risk
• Hold : Fairly valued, no compelling reason to buy now
• Avoid : Overvalued, significant risks, or better alternatives exist

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Value Trap Indicator

What It Is

A Value Trap is when a stock appears undervalued (low P/E, low P/B) but is actually cheap for valid fundamental reasons. The stock keeps declining despite appearing "cheap."

Value Trap Score Calculation (0-100, LOWER = more genuine, HIGHER = more trap)

Components to evaluate (ADD points for trap indicators):

1. Price Momentum (25 points max)

• 6-month price change vs market: If underperforming by >20%, ADD 15-25 points
• 12-month price change: Sustained decline = ADD 10-20 points
• If price momentum is POSITIVE: ADD 0 points

2. Earnings Quality (25 points max)

• EPS trend (3 years): Declining = ADD 10-25 points
• Revenue trend: Declining = ADD 5-15 points
• Margin trend: Compressing = ADD 5-10 points
• If earnings quality is STRONG: ADD 0 points

3. Balance Sheet Health (25 points max)

• Debt levels increasing? ADD 5-15 points
• Cash flow negative or declining? ADD 10-20 points
• Working capital deteriorating? ADD 5-10 points
• If balance sheet is HEALTHY: ADD 0 points

4. Valuation Context (25 points max)

• Is low multiple justified by declining fundamentals? ADD 10-25 points
• Compare current fundamentals to when multiple was higher
• If fundamentals justify valuation: ADD 0 points

Scoring Formula

Value Trap Score = Momentum Penalty + Quality Penalty + Balance Sheet Penalty + Valuation Penalty

(Score ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 = definitely genuine value, 100 = definite value trap)

Score Interpretation

• 0-19 : Genuine Value (likely undervalued, fundamentals intact) - GREEN
• 20-39 : Probably Genuine (minor concerns, monitor) - LIGHT GREEN
• 40-59 : Caution Zone (mixed signals, proceed carefully) - YELLOW
• 60-79 : Likely Trap (multiple red flags) - ORANGE
• 80-100 : Strong Trap Signal (avoid) - RED

Display Format

Value Trap: 21 (Genuine)

Color coding: green <40, yellow 40-60, red >60

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Investor Persona Scores

Score each stock against 8 famous investor philosophies (0-10 scale). This helps users understand what type of investor the stock suits.

1. Warren Buffett Score

Based on "The Warren Buffett Way" - seeks durable competitive advantages

Key metrics weighted:

• ROE (>20%): 2 points
• Profit margin (>15%): 2 points
• Free cash flow positive & growing: 2 points
• Moat strength (brand, pricing power): 2 points
• Predictable earnings: 2 points

Buffett likes: Predictable businesses, pricing power, low capex needs, consistent profitability

2. Charlie Munger Score

Based on "Poor Charlie's Almanack" - mental latticework, inversion thinking

Focus on: What could go WRONG (inversion principle)

Scoring: Start at 10, subtract penalties:

• High debt (D/E > 2): -3 points
• Volatile earnings: -2 points
• Poor management history: -2 points
• No competitive moat: -2 points
• Accounting red flags: -3 points

3. Ray Dalio Score

Based on "Principles" - All-Weather portfolio, economic machine understanding

Key metrics:

• D/E ratio < 1: 2 points
• Beta < 1: 2 points
• Stable margins across cycles: 2 points
• Low earnings volatility: 2 points
• Recession resistance history: 2 points

Dalio likes: Deleveraging plays, operational efficiency, cycle resilience

4. Peter Lynch Score

Based on "One Up on Wall Street" - GARP (Growth at Reasonable Price)

Primary metric: PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth Rate)

• PEG < 0.5: 10 points
• PEG 0.5-1.0: 8 points
• PEG 1.0-1.5: 6 points
• PEG 1.5-2.0: 4 points
• PEG > 2.0: 2 points

Adjustment factors:

• +1 if earnings growing consistently
• +1 if business easy to understand
• -1 if declining industry

5. Benjamin Graham Score

Based on "The Intelligent Investor" - Margin of Safety

Graham criteria (2 points each, max 10):

• P/E < 15
• P/B < 1.5
• Current ratio > 2
• Positive earnings 10 years
• Dividend paid 20+ years

6. Joel Greenblatt Score

Based on "The Little Book That Beats the Market" - Magic Formula

Combines two rankings:

• Earnings Yield (EBIT/EV): Higher = better
• Return on Capital (EBIT/Net Fixed Assets + Working Capital): Higher = better

Scoring: Combined rank in top 10% = 10 points, scaled down

7. John Templeton Score

Based on contrarian, global value investing

Key factors:

• Trading at multi-year lows: +3 points
• Out of favor with analysts: +2 points
• Strong fundamentals despite pessimism: +3 points
• Global perspective (non-US opportunity): +2 points

8. George Soros Score

Based on "The Alchemy of Finance" - Reflexivity

Key factors:

• Momentum and trend strength: 3 points
• Macro tailwinds: 3 points
• Market perception shifting: 2 points
• Inflection point catalyst: 2 points

Soros likes: Macro plays, reflexive situations, trend participation

Display Format

Show 8 badges around radar chart with scores and color coding:

• Green (7-10): Strong fit
• Yellow (4-6.9): Moderate fit
• Red (0-3.9): Poor fit

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Enhanced Technical Analysis

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis

Components to Calculate:

• Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period high + 9-period low) / 2
• Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period high + 26-period low) / 2
• Senkou Span A: (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead
• Senkou Span B: (52-period high + 52-period low) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead
• Chikou Span (Lagging Span): Current close plotted 26 periods back

Cloud (Kumo): Area between Senkou Span A and B

Signals to Identify and Display:

• TK Bullish Cross: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen (bullish) - mark with ◆
• TK Bearish Cross: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen (bearish) - mark with ◆
• Kumo Twist Bullish: Cloud changes from red to green - mark with ◆
• Kumo Twist Bearish: Cloud changes from green to red - mark with ◆
• Price vs Cloud: Above cloud (bullish), Below cloud (bearish), In cloud (neutral)

Dual PEG Ratios

• PEG (1Y): P/E ÷ 1-Year Forward Growth Estimate
• PEG (5Y): P/E ÷ 5-Year Historical Growth Rate
• Both provide different perspectives on growth valuation

FCF Margin

• Formula: Free Cash Flow / Revenue × 100
• Benchmark: >15% is excellent, >10% is good
• Shows cash generation efficiency relative to sales

News Sentiment & Short Interest

• News Sentiment: -1 to +1 scale based on recent article sentiment
• Short Interest: % of float sold short (>10% = high, <5% = low)
• Both indicate market sentiment and potential squeeze/reversal

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Fundamental Analysis Process

1. Business Understanding (Always First)

What to Analyze:

• What does the company do? (products, services, business model)
• Revenue sources and breakdown
• Target customers and markets
• Competitive advantages (moat sources)
• Market position and share
• Industry dynamics and trends

Management Evaluation:

• CEO background, tenure, track record
• CFO and key executives
• Capital allocation decisions (dividends, buybacks, acquisitions, R&D)
• Management compensation alignment
• Insider trading patterns (buying is bullish signal)
• Leadership quality from earnings calls and letters

Competitive Position:

• Market share and trends
• Key competitors (identify 3-5 direct peers)
• What differentiates this company?
• Sustainable competitive advantages?

2. Financial Analysis (5-10 Year View)

Research Process Order:

1. Latest 10-K first - Understand current business and recent results
2. Go back 5-10 years through historical 10-Ks - Understand evolution
3. Review last 2-3 years of 10-Qs - Current trajectory
4. Examine proxy statements - Governance and compensation

Key Metrics to Analyze:

Quality Benchmarks:

• ROE > 15% (return on equity)
• Profit Margin > 15%
• Gross Margin > 30%
• Debt < Annual Revenue
• Positive and growing Free Cash Flow
• Revenue growth over 5 years (inflation-adjusted)

Trends to Assess:

• Revenue growth trajectory (accelerating/stable/decelerating?)
• Margin expansion or contraction (why?)
• Cash flow consistency and quality
• Balance sheet strength (debt levels, liquidity)
• Return on invested capital (ROIC)
• Working capital management

Red Flags:

• Declining margins despite revenue growth
• Negative or inconsistent free cash flow
• Debt growing faster than cash generation
• Losing market share
• Chronic guidance misses
• Accounting irregularities

3. Competitive Moat Assessment

Moat Strength: Wide / Narrow / None

Evaluate Sources:

• Network effects : Product improves with more users?
• Brand loyalty : Pricing power from brand strength?
• Switching costs : Difficult/expensive to switch?
• Regulatory barriers : Licenses, patents, regulations?
• Cost advantages : Scale, technology, location?
• Intangible assets : Patents, trademarks, proprietary data?

Moat Durability:

• How long can advantages be sustained?
• What could erode the moat?
• Is moat strengthening or weakening?

Peer Comparison: Compare this company's moat vs. 3-5 direct competitors:

• Market share trends
• Profitability metrics (margins, ROE)
• Growth rates
• Financial strength

4. Advanced Financial Health Metrics

Beyond basic quality metrics, calculate these advanced scores for deeper insight:

Piotroski F-Score (Financial Strength)

Purpose : 9-point score measuring financial strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency.

Scoring (0-9, higher is better):

Profitability (4 points):

• ROA > 0: +1
• Operating Cash Flow > 0: +1
• ROA improving YoY: +1
• Cash Flow from Operations > Net Income (quality of earnings): +1

Leverage/Liquidity (3 points):

• Long-term debt decreasing YoY: +1
• Current ratio improving YoY: +1
• No new shares issued in past year: +1

Operating Efficiency (2 points):

• Gross margin improving YoY: +1
• Asset turnover ratio improving YoY: +1

Interpretation:

• 8-9 : Excellent financial health
• 6-7 : Good financial health
• 4-5 : Adequate financial health
• 0-3 : Weak financial health

Altman Z-Score (Bankruptcy Risk)

Purpose : Predicts probability of bankruptcy within 2 years.

Formula (for public manufacturing companies): Z = 1.2(A) + 1.4(B) + 3.3(C) + 0.6(D) + 1.0(E)

Where:

• A = Working Capital / Total Assets
• B = Retained Earnings / Total Assets
• C = EBIT / Total Assets
• D = Market Cap / Total Liabilities
• E = Sales / Total Assets

Interpretation:

• Z > 2.99: Safe Zone (low bankruptcy risk)
• Z 1.81-2.99 : Grey Zone (moderate risk)
• Z < 1.81: Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)

Note : Adjust for non-manufacturing companies (different coefficients).

Beneish M-Score (Earnings Manipulation Detection)

Purpose : Identifies likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Key Indicators (simplified approach):

• Days Sales Outstanding Index (increasing = warning)
• Gross Margin Index (declining = warning)
• Asset Quality Index (increasing = warning)
• Sales Growth Index (excessive growth = warning)
• Depreciation Index (declining = warning)
• SG&A Index (disproportionate change = warning)
• Leverage Index (increasing = warning)
• Total Accruals to Total Assets (high = warning)

Interpretation:

• M-Score > -1.78: Likely manipulator (RED FLAG)
• M-Score < -1.78: Unlikely manipulator (clean)

Practical Check (if full M-Score unavailable):

• Are accruals consistently high relative to cash flow?
• Is DSO rising faster than revenue?
• Are margins declining with revenue growth?
• Any accounting restatements or auditor changes?

Max Drawdown (5-Year)

Purpose : Measures largest peak-to-trough price decline.

Calculation:

• Identify highest price in past 5 years
• Find lowest subsequent price before recovery
• Max Drawdown % = (Low - High) / High × 100

Interpretation:

• 0-20% : Low volatility (defensive stock)
• 20-40% : Moderate volatility (typical stock)
• 40-60% : High volatility (cyclical/growth)
• > 60%: Extreme volatility (speculative)

Consolidated Scores

Strength Score (0-100): Composite of:

• Financial metrics (F-Score contribution)
• Profitability (ROE, margins)
• Growth rates
• Market position

Integrity Score (0-100): Composite of:

• M-Score (earnings quality)
• Cash flow vs. earnings alignment
• Accounting practices
• Management transparency

Predictability Score (0-100): Composite of:

• Revenue consistency (low volatility)
• Earnings consistency
• Business model stability
• Cyclicality assessment

Data Quality Score (0-100):

• Completeness of financial data
• Recency of filings
• Auditor quality
• Disclosure transparency

5. Risk Analysis

Company-Specific Risks:

• Execution risk (can management deliver?)
• Competition risk (share loss, new entrants)
• Product concentration (single product dependency)
• Customer concentration (few large customers)
• Key person risk (CEO dependency)
• Financial distress risk (Z-Score assessment)
• Earnings quality risk (M-Score assessment)

Industry Risks:

• Disruption (technology or business model)
• Cyclicality (economic sensitivity)
• Regulation (policy changes)
• Commoditization (pricing power erosion)
• Structural decline (secular headwinds)

Macro Risks:

• Economic (recession, inflation, rates)
• Geopolitical (trade wars, conflicts)
• Currency (FX exposure)
• Market (valuation levels, sentiment)

Overall Risk Level: Low / Moderate / High

Consolidated Risk Score: (0-1 scale, lower is better)

• Incorporates: Z-Score, volatility, leverage, earnings quality
• <0.30: Low Risk
• 0.30-0.60: Moderate Risk

• 0.60: High Risk

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Valuation Assessment

Use multiple valuation methods - synthesize into fair value estimate.

Required Valuation Methods

1. DCF Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)

• Project free cash flows (5-10 years)
• Apply appropriate discount rate (WACC)
• Calculate terminal value
• Include margin of safety: 15-30%
• Sensitivity analysis with different assumptions

2. Relative Valuation

• Compare to 3-5 direct peer companies
• Key multiples: P/E, EV/EBITDA, Price/Sales, Price/Book
• Adjust for growth differentials
• Consider industry-specific multiples
• Use both current and historical peer averages

3. Peter Lynch Fair Value

• Growth-at-reasonable-price framework
• Compare P/E to growth rate (PEG ratio)
• Fair value when P/E ≈ growth rate
• Adjust for quality factors

4. Asset-Based (When Applicable)

• For REITs, financials, asset-heavy companies
• Book value or replacement cost
• Net asset value calculations

Valuation Synthesis

Fair Value Estimate: €X.XX

Weight each method appropriately:

• DCF: 40% (if reliable cash flows)
• Relative: 30% (peer comparison)
• Peter Lynch: 30% (growth-adjusted)

Margin of Safety:

• Current Price vs. Fair Value : X% discount/premium
• Required : Minimum 15% margin of safety
• Adequate : 15-30% margin of safety
• Excellent : >30% margin of safety

Valuation Conclusion:

• UNDERVALUED : >15% below fair value (buy opportunity)
• FAIRLY VALUED : Within ±15% of fair value (hold)
• OVERVALUED : >15% above fair value (avoid/sell)

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Technical Analysis (Entry Timing)

Focus on identifying optimal entry points, not full technical analysis.

Key Technical Elements

1. Price Action (Last 30-60 Days)

• Current trend: Uptrend / Downtrend / Range-bound
• Recent price pattern
• Volume trends (increasing on rallies?)
• Momentum assessment

2. Key Levels

• Support levels : Where buying interest emerges
  • Primary support: €X.XX
  • Secondary support: €X.XX
• Resistance levels : Where selling pressure increases
  • Primary resistance: €X.XX
  • Secondary resistance: €X.XX

3. Technical Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):

  • 70 = Overbought (may pullback)

  • <30 = Oversold (potential bounce)

  • 40-60 = Neutral

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
  • Bullish crossover / Bearish crossover / Neutral
  • Momentum accelerating or decelerating?
• Moving Averages :
  • 50-day MA: €X.XX (price above/below?)
  • 200-day MA: €X.XX (trend indicator)

4. Entry Assessment

• Technical Setup : Bullish / Neutral / Bearish
• Optimal Entry : Wait for pullback to support / Buy at market / Wait for breakout
• Entry Price Range : €X.XX - €X.XX
• Avoid Above : €X.XX (poor risk/reward)

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Bull vs. Bear Case Analysis

MANDATORY : Every analysis must present both sides fairly.

Bull Case (Optimistic Scenario)

Potential Upside: +X% to €X.XX

1. [Key bull argument 1 with specific evidence]
2. [Key bull argument 2 with specific evidence]
3. [Key bull argument 3 with specific evidence]

For this to play out:

• [Required condition 1]
• [Required condition 2]

Bear Case (Pessimistic Scenario)

Potential Downside: -X% to €X.XX

1. [Key bear argument 1 with specific evidence]
2. [Key bear argument 2 with specific evidence]
3. [Key bear argument 3 with specific evidence]

This happens if:

• [Risk trigger 1]
• [Risk trigger 2]

Balance Assessment

Which case is more probable: [Bull / Bear / Balanced]

[Explanation of why one case is more likely, considering:

• Quality of evidence for each side
• Historical precedent
• Management track record
• Industry dynamics
• Current valuation]

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Investment Recommendation Structure

BUY Recommendation Criteria

• Fair value >15% above current price (adequate margin of safety)
• Strong or improving fundamentals
• Reasonable or bullish technical setup
• Identifiable catalysts
• Acceptable risk level
• Conviction: Strong Buy or Buy

HOLD Recommendation Criteria

• Fair value within ±15% of current price
• Stable fundamentals, no compelling catalyst
• Better opportunities may exist elsewhere
• Wait for better entry price
• Conviction: Hold

SELL/AVOID Recommendation Criteria

• Fair value <-15% below current price (overvalued)
• Deteriorating fundamentals
• Significant risks
• Better alternatives available
• Must provide 3-5 alternative candidates
• Conviction: Avoid

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Position Sizing Framework

Allocation recommendation based on:

Conviction + Risk = Position Size

Strong Buy (High Conviction, Low Risk):

• Position size: 5-8% of portfolio
• Maximum: 10%

Buy (Moderate Conviction, Moderate Risk):

• Position size: 3-5% of portfolio
• Maximum: 7%

Speculative/High Risk:

• Position size: 1-3% of portfolio
• Maximum: 5%

Considerations:

• Diversification needs (avoid sector concentration)
• Correlation with existing holdings
• Overall portfolio risk
• Liquidity requirements
• User's risk tolerance (from project context)

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Entry and Exit Strategy

Entry Strategy

NO scale-in strategies - recommend single entry approach:

If BUY:

• Ideal Entry Price: €X.XX - €X.XX (optimal range)
• Maximum Buy Price: €X.XX (above this, risk/reward unfavorable)
• Approach:
  • "Buy now at market" (if currently at good price)
  • "Wait for pullback to €X.XX support" (if extended)
  • "Buy on break above €X.XX" (if breakout setup)
  • "Don't buy above €X.XX" (if overvalued)

Exit Strategy

Price Target (12-month): €X.XX (+X% upside)

• Conservative: €X.XX
• Base case: €X.XX
• Optimistic: €X.XX

Stop Loss: €X.XX (-X% maximum loss)

• Technical stop: Below key support
• Fundamental stop: If thesis breaks

Sell If (Thesis-Breaking Conditions):

1. [Specific fundamental deterioration]
2. [Specific competitive threat]
3. [Specific valuation threshold]

Hold Duration:

• Expected timeframe: [6-12 months / 1-3 years / 3-5+ years]
• Based on investment type (swing trade vs long-term hold)

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Catalyst Identification

Identify specific events that could drive stock performance.

Near-Term (0-6 months):

• Upcoming earnings: [Date]
• Product launches: [Event]
• Regulatory decisions: [Expected timing]
• Industry events: [Conference, data release]

Medium-Term (6-18 months):

• Market expansion plans
• New product cycles
• Margin expansion initiatives
• Strategic partnerships

Long-Term (18+ months):

• Structural industry trends
• Market share gains
• Technological leadership
• Business model evolution

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Key Analytical Constraints

Critical Principles:

1. No Press/News for Fundamental Analysis

   • Use company filings only (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, proxy)
   • Use earnings call transcripts
   • Do NOT rely on news articles or press releases
   • Exception: News for recent developments, but verify in filings

2. Magnitude Over Precision

   • Focus on stocks with good margin of safety (>15%)
   • Don't need perfect forecasts
   • Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong
   • Conservative assumptions better than optimistic

3. Long-Term View

   • Analyze 5-10 year trends, not just recent quarters
   • Temporary setbacks vs. structural problems
   • Sustainable competitive advantages matter most
   • Short-term noise vs. long-term signal

4. Compare Apples to Apples

   • Benchmark against 3-5 direct competitors
   • Not just broad market indices
   • Industry-specific metrics and norms
   • Adjust for company size and maturity

5. Intellectual Honesty

   • Acknowledge limitations and unknowns
   • Present both bull and bear cases fairly
   • Say "I don't know" when appropriate
   • Update views when evidence changes

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Output Template

# [SYMBOL] - [Company Name] Evaluation

## ⚠️ DELIVERABLES CHECKLIST ✓
☑ Technical Analysis Complete
☑ Fundamental Analysis Complete
☑ Valuation Assessment Complete
☑ Bull vs. Bear Case Complete
☑ Clear Recommendation: **[BUY / HOLD / SELL]**
☑ Alternative Candidates: [If SELL, list 3-5 alternatives below]

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## 📊 Executive Summary

[2-3 sentence bottom-line assessment with key reasoning]

**Recommendation: [BUY / HOLD / SELL]**
**Conviction: [Strong Buy / Buy / Hold / Avoid]**

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## 💰 Valuation Assessment

**Fair Value Estimate: €X.XX** (Current: €X.XX)
- **Margin of Safety: X%** [Adequate >15% / Insufficient <15%]
- **Valuation: [UNDERVALUED / FAIRLY VALUED / OVERVALUED]**

| Valuation Method | Fair Value | vs. Current | Weight |
|-----------------|-----------|-------------|--------|
| DCF Analysis | €X.XX | +X% | 40% |
| Peer Relative | €X.XX | +X% | 30% |
| Peter Lynch | €X.XX | +X% | 30% |
| **Weighted Average** | **€X.XX** | **+X%** | **100%** |

**Assumptions:**
- DCF: [Key assumptions - growth rate, margins, discount rate]
- Margin of safety applied: X%

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## 🏢 Business & Competitive Analysis

### What They Do
[2-3 paragraph business model summary:
- Core products/services
- Revenue breakdown
- Target markets
- Business model]

### Competitive Advantages
**Moat Strength: [Wide / Narrow / None]**

1. **[Advantage 1]**: [Detailed explanation with evidence]
2. **[Advantage 2]**: [Detailed explanation with evidence]
3. **[Advantage 3]**: [Detailed explanation with evidence]

**Moat Durability:** [How sustainable are these advantages? 3-5 years? 10+ years?]

### Management Quality Assessment
**Overall Rating: [Excellent / Good / Adequate / Concerning]**

- **CEO**: [Name] - [Background, tenure]
  - Track record: [Achievements/concerns]
  - Capital allocation: [Shareholder-friendly? Smart acquisitions?]
- **CFO**: [Name] - [Financial stewardship]
- **Insider Trading**: [Recent buying/selling activity]
- **Key Insight**: [Overall management assessment]

### Competitive Position

**Market Position:**
- Market share: X% (#X in industry)
- Share trend: [Gaining / Stable / Losing]

**Key Competitors:** [List 3-5 direct peers]

**Peer Comparison:**
| Company | Mkt Cap | Revenue Growth | Profit Margin | ROE | P/E | Moat |
|---------|---------|---------------|---------------|-----|-----|------|
| [Target] | €XB | X% | X% | X% | X.X | [Rating] |
| [Peer 1] | €XB | X% | X% | X% | X.X | [Rating] |
| [Peer 2] | €XB | X% | X% | X.X | X.X | [Rating] |
| [Peer 3] | €XB | X% | X% | X% | X.X | [Rating] |

**Competitive Assessment:** [Is this the best company in the sector?]

---

## 📈 Financial Health Analysis

### Quality Metrics vs. Benchmarks

| Metric | Current | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | 5Y Ago | Target | Status |
|--------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| ROE | X% | X% | X% | X% | >15% | [✓/✗] |
| Profit Margin | X% | X% | X% | X% | >15% | [✓/✗] |
| Gross Margin | X% | X% | X% | X% | >30% | [✓/✗] |
| Revenue Growth | X% | X% | X% | X% | >0% | [✓/✗] |
| Debt/Revenue | X.X | X.X | X.X | X.X | <1.0 | [✓/✗] |
| FCF | €XM | €XM | €XM | €XM | Positive | [✓/✗] |

### Advanced Financial Health Scores

**Piotroski F-Score: X/9** [Excellent 8-9 / Good 6-7 / Adequate 4-5 / Weak 0-3]

*Profitability:* X/4
- ROA positive: [✓/✗]
- Operating CF positive: [✓/✗]
- ROA improving: [✓/✗]
- CF > Net Income: [✓/✗]

*Leverage:* X/3
- Debt decreasing: [✓/✗]
- Current ratio improving: [✓/✗]
- No dilution: [✓/✗]

*Efficiency:* X/2
- Margin improving: [✓/✗]
- Turnover improving: [✓/✗]

**Assessment:** [Detailed interpretation of F-Score]

**Altman Z-Score: X.XX** [Safe >2.99 / Grey 1.81-2.99 / Distress <1.81]
- **Bankruptcy Risk:** [Low / Moderate / High]
- **Interpretation:** [Explanation of Z-Score and financial stability]

**Beneish M-Score: X.XX** [Clean <-1.78 / Warning >-1.78]
- **Earnings Quality:** [High / Moderate / Questionable]
- **Red Flags:** [List any concerning indicators or state "None"]

**Max Drawdown (5Y): -X%** [Low <20% / Moderate 20-40% / High 40-60% / Extreme >60%]
- **Volatility Assessment:** [Low/Moderate/High volatility explanation]
- **Peak price:** €X.XX ([Date])
- **Trough price:** €X.XX ([Date])

### Consolidated Scores

**Strength Score: X/100** (Financial power and market position)
**Integrity Score: X/100** (Earnings quality and transparency)
**Predictability Score: X/100** (Business consistency)
**Data Quality Score: X/100** (Information completeness)

**Overall Quality Rating: [Elite / Strong / Good / Adequate / Weak]**

### Financial Trends (5-10 Year View)

**Revenue:**
- [Trend description: growth rate, consistency, drivers]
- [Any concerning patterns?]

**Margins:**
- Gross margin: [Expanding / Stable / Declining]
- Operating margin: [Trend]
- Net margin: [Trend]
- Drivers: [Why are margins moving this way?]

**Cash Flow:**
- Operating cash flow: [Trend and quality]
- Free cash flow: [Consistency, conversion]
- Capital allocation: [Dividends, buybacks, capex, acquisitions]

**Balance Sheet:**
- Debt levels: [Conservative / Moderate / High]
- Liquidity: [Strong / Adequate / Concerning]
- Trend: [Strengthening / Stable / Weakening]

### 🚩 Red Flags
[List any concerning trends or issues, or state "None identified"]

---

## 📉 Technical Analysis & Entry Timing

### Price Action (Last 30-60 Days)
- **Current Price**: €X.XX
- **52-Week Range**: €X.XX - €X.XX
- **30-day Change**: [+/-X%]
- **Trend**: [Uptrend / Downtrend / Range-bound]
- **Volume**: [Increasing / Decreasing / Normal]

### Key Technical Levels

**Support Levels:**
- **Primary Support: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason]
- **Secondary Support: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason]

**Resistance Levels:**
- **Primary Resistance: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason]
- **Secondary Resistance: €X.XX** - [Significance/reason]

### Technical Indicators

**RSI**: X.X [Overbought >70 / Neutral 30-70 / Oversold <30]
**MACD**: [Bullish crossover / Bearish crossover / Neutral]
- Interpretation: [Momentum assessment]

**Moving Averages:**
- 50-day MA: €X.XX - Price is [above/below]
- 200-day MA: €X.XX - Price is [above/below]
- Golden/Death Cross: [Any recent crossovers?]

### Entry Assessment

**Technical Setup: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish]**

**Optimal Entry Strategy:**
- [Buy now at market / Wait for pullback to €X.XX / Buy on breakout above €X.XX]
- **Ideal Entry Range: €X.XX - €X.XX**
- **Maximum Buy Price: €X.XX** (avoid above this)

**Momentum: [Strong Bullish / Bullish / Neutral / Bearish / Strong Bearish]**

---

## ⚖️ Bull vs. Bear Case

### 🐂 Bull Case
**Potential Upside: €X.XX (+X%)**

1. **[Bull Argument 1]**: [Specific evidence and reasoning]
2. **[Bull Argument 2]**: [Specific evidence and reasoning]
3. **[Bull Argument 3]**: [Specific evidence and reasoning]

**For this to play out:**
- [Required condition 1]
- [Required condition 2]

**Probability: [High / Moderate / Low]**

### 🐻 Bear Case
**Potential Downside: €X.XX (-X%)**

1. **[Bear Argument 1]**: [Specific risk and reasoning]
2. **[Bear Argument 2]**: [Specific risk and reasoning]
3. **[Bear Argument 3]**: [Specific risk and reasoning]

**This happens if:**
- [Risk trigger 1]
- [Risk trigger 2]

**Probability: [High / Moderate / Low]**

### ⚖️ Balance Assessment

**Which case is more probable: [Bull / Bear / Balanced]**

[2-3 paragraph explanation of:
- Weight of evidence for each side
- Historical precedent
- Management track record
- Industry dynamics
- Current valuation
- Risk/reward assessment]

---

## ⚠️ Risk Analysis

**Overall Risk Level: [Low / Moderate / High]**

### Key Risks

**1. [Risk Category - e.g., Competition Risk]**: 
[Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low]

**2. [Risk Category - e.g., Execution Risk]**: 
[Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low]

**3. [Risk Category - e.g., Valuation Risk]**: 
[Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low]

**4. [Risk Category - e.g., Macro Risk]**: 
[Specific risk and potential impact. Probability: High/Medium/Low]

### Risk Mitigation
[How does the company/investment address these risks?]
[What reduces the risk in this investment?]

---

## 🎯 Catalysts & Timeline

### Near-Term (0-6 months)
- **[Date]**: [Specific catalyst - earnings, product launch, etc.]
- **[Date]**: [Specific catalyst]

### Medium-Term (6-18 months)
- [Expected development 1]
- [Expected development 2]

### Long-Term (18+ months)
- [Structural trend 1]
- [Structural trend 2]

**Expected Timeline to Target**: [6-12 months / 1-3 years / 3-5+ years]

---

## 💡 Investment Recommendation

### **RECOMMENDATION: [BUY / HOLD / SELL]**
### **Conviction: [Strong Buy / Buy / Hold / Avoid]**

### Rationale
[2-3 paragraph synthesis of entire analysis:
- Why this recommendation?
- What makes it compelling (or not)?
- How does valuation + fundamentals + technicals + catalysts = this conclusion?
- What's the risk/reward?]

---

## 📍 Entry Strategy (if BUY)

**Ideal Entry Price: €X.XX - €X.XX**
- Reasoning: [Why this range?]

**Maximum Acceptable Price: €X.XX**
- Above this: Risk/reward unfavorable

**Approach:**
- [Buy now at market / Wait for pullback to €X.XX / Buy on breakout above €X.XX]
- Reasoning: [Current technical setup justification]

**DO NOT BUY IF:**
- Price exceeds €X.XX without fundamental improvement
- [Other specific condition]

---

## 🎯 Exit Strategy

### Price Targets (12-Month Horizon)
- **Conservative**: €X.XX (+X%)
- **Base Case**: €X.XX (+X%)
- **Optimistic**: €X.XX (+X%)

### Stop Loss
**Stop Loss: €X.XX (-X% maximum loss)**
- Technical: Below €X.XX support
- Fundamental: If [thesis-breaking condition]

### Sell Conditions (Thesis-Breaking)
Exit position if any of these occur:
1. [Specific fundamental deterioration - e.g., "ROE drops below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters"]
2. [Specific competitive threat - e.g., "Loses >5% market share to competitor"]
3. [Specific valuation threshold - e.g., "Reaches €X.XX (>50% above fair value)"]

### Hold Duration
**Expected Timeframe**: [6-12 months / 1-3 years / 3-5+ years]
- Based on: [Investment type - swing trade vs. long-term hold]

---

## 📏 Position Sizing

### Recommended Allocation: X-X% of portfolio
**Specific Recommendation: X%**

**Rationale:**
- Conviction level: [Strong Buy / Buy → drives size]
- Risk level: [Low / Moderate / High → constrains size]
- Diversification: [Sector exposure, correlation with existing holdings]
- Liquidity: [Can exit position easily?]

**Maximum Allocation: X%**
- Risk management limit
- Don't exceed even if highly convicted

### Sizing Guidelines Applied:
- Strong Buy + Low Risk = 5-8% (max 10%)
- Buy + Moderate Risk = 3-5% (max 7%)
- Speculative + High Risk = 1-3% (max 5%)

---

## 🔑 Key Takeaways

### Top 3 Reasons to Invest
1. [Most compelling positive factor]
2. [Second most compelling positive factor]
3. [Third most compelling positive factor]

### Top 3 Concerns
1. [Biggest risk or concern]
2. [Second biggest risk or concern]
3. [Third biggest risk or concern]

### One-Sentence Investment Thesis
[Single sentence capturing the complete investment case - why buy or avoid]

---

## 📚 Research Documentation

**Sources Consulted:**
- 10-K filings: [Fiscal years reviewed - e.g., FY2020-2024]
- 10-Q filings: [Recent quarters - e.g., Q1-Q3 2025]
- Earnings calls: [Dates reviewed]
- Proxy statements: [Years reviewed]
- Management letters: [Years reviewed]
- Competitor analysis: [Companies benchmarked]

**Analysis Depth:**
- Historical period analyzed: [X years]
- Peer companies compared: [Number and names]
- Valuation methods used: [DCF, Relative, Peter Lynch, Asset-based]

**Confidence Level: [High / Medium / Low]**
- **Based on**: [Quality and completeness of available data]
- **Gaps**: [Any areas where information is limited or unavailable]
- **Limitations**: [Any constraints in the analysis]

---

## 🔄 Alternative Candidates (Required if SELL/AVOID)

[If recommending SELL or AVOID, provide 3-5 better investment alternatives with brief rationale for each]

### Alternative 1: [Symbol] - [Company Name]
**Why it's better**: [1-2 paragraph comparison]
**Quick metrics**: [Valuation, growth, margins]

### Alternative 2: [Symbol] - [Company Name]
**Why it's better**: [1-2 paragraph comparison]
**Quick metrics**: [Valuation, growth, margins]

### Alternative 3: [Symbol] - [Company Name]
**Why it's better**: [1-2 paragraph comparison]
**Quick metrics**: [Valuation, growth, margins]

[Continue for 4-5 alternatives if SELL recommendation]

---

**Analysis Date**: [Current Date]
**Next Review**: [Suggested review date based on catalysts or timeline]
**Analyst**: Claude Stock Evaluator

---

## 📊 Quant-Style Dashboard

**FINAL MANDATORY STEP**: Create a React artifact using the standardized quant-style dashboard template with:

**Required Data to Populate:**
- ✅ All 48 metrics across 8 sections (calculated above)
- ✅ Historical price data (5 years, 6-12 points)
- ✅ 1-year price + 6-month forecast (4-6 points)
- ✅ MACD data (3-5 recent points)
- ✅ RSI data (3-5 recent points)
- ✅ Radar chart (12 metrics, normalized 0-100)
- ✅ Bull case (target + 5 points)
- ✅ Bear case (target + 5 points)
- ✅ Entry/exit strategy (5 values)

**Use the EXACT template code provided in the skill instructions above.**
**DO NOT use placeholder values - populate with actual calculated data from this analysis.**

[Create the React artifact here using the quant-style template]

---

Quant-Style Dashboard Artifact

MANDATORY : After completing the full text analysis, create a React dashboard artifact using the standardized quant-style template format.

Dashboard Template Structure

The dashboard uses a specific institutional-grade format with:

1. Header Section (Orange background)

• Format: TICKER - Company Name

2. Eight Metric Sections (2-column grid)

Each section: 6 metric boxes with values, labels, benchmarks, color coding

3. Charts Section (3-column grid)

• Left : Linear Price Chart + MACD

  • Price, Intrinsic Value, Market Value lines
  • 5-year historical data
  • MACD indicator below

• Center : Radar Chart + 1-Year Forecast

  • 12-point radar (normalized 0-100)
  • Consolidated advice badge
  • 1-year price + 6-month forecast

• Right : Log Price Chart + RSI

  • Log-scale price history
  • Intrinsic value comparison
  • RSI (14) indicator below

4. Key Notes Section (Expandable accordion)

• 3-column layout: Bull Case | Bear Case | Entry/Exit Strategy
• Click to expand/collapse

5. Footer

• Analysis date, data sources, recommendation

Required Metrics by Section

Price & Valuation (6 metrics):

• Price, Market Cap, Trailing P/E, Forward P/E, Subsector Typical P/E, PEG Ratio

Financial Performance (6 metrics):

• ROE, ROA, Profit Margin, Operating Margin, Gross Margin, ROIC

Growth Metrics (6 metrics):

• Revenue Growth (5Y), Earnings Growth, EPS (TTM), Forward EPS, Analyst Rec, Target Price

Risk Indicators (6 metrics):

• Debt/Equity, Consolidated Risk, F-Score, Z-Score, M-Score, Max Drawdown (5Y)

Liquidity & FCF (6 metrics):

• Current Ratio, Total Cash, Total Debt, FCF Growth 5Y, FCF Yield, Payout Ratio

Insider & Sentiment (6 metrics):

• Insider Buys (12M), Insider Sells (12M), Net Shares (12M), RSI (14D), Stock Type, Sector

Quality Scores (6 metrics):

• CQVS, Label, Valuation Score, Quality Score, Strength Score, Integrity Score

Moat & Other (6 metrics):

• Moat Score (0-10), Beta, Predictability, Data Quality, Completeness, Dividend Yield

Radar Chart Metrics (12 points, normalized 0-100)

1. Revenue Growth (normalize: X% growth → scale to 100 for 20%+)
2. Operating Margin (normalize: X% → 100 for 30%+)
3. Gross Margin (normalize: X% → 100 for 60%+)
4. Profit Margin (normalize: X% → 100 for 25%+)
5. ROE (normalize: X% → 100 for 30%+)
6. Risk Score (inverse of consolidated risk: 100 - risk*100)
7. Beta Score (inverse: 100 for beta=0.5, 50 for beta=1.5, 0 for beta=2.5+)
8. P/Market Discount (100 = deeply undervalued, 50 = fair, 0 = overvalued)
9. Moat Score (moat rating * 10)
10. FCF Yield (X% → 100 for 8%+)
11. ROA (X% → 100 for 20%+)
12. Earnings Growth (X% → 100 for 25%+)

Color Coding Rules

// Green (isGood: true) - Positive indicators
ROE > 20%, ROA > 10%, Margins > 20%, ROIC > 15%
Revenue Growth > 10%, Current Ratio 1-2, Z-Score > 3
M-Score < -1.78, FCF Growth > 0%, Payout < 50%
F-Score >= 7, Quality >= 70, Strength >= 70

// Red (isGood: false) - Warning indicators  
Max Drawdown < -50%, Beta > 2, Consolidated Risk > 0.6
Predictability < 50%, F-Score <= 3, Z-Score < 1.81
M-Score > -1.78, Quality < 50

// Yellow (isGood: 'neutral') - Monitor
F-Score 4-6, RSI 30-70, Moat 5-7, Quality 50-70
Beta 1.5-2.0, Predictability 50-70%

Complete Template Code

Use this exact template structure:

import React, { useState } from 'react';
import { 
  LineChart, Line, XAxis, YAxis, CartesianGrid, Tooltip, 
  ResponsiveContainer, RadarChart, PolarGrid, PolarAngleAxis, 
  PolarRadiusAxis, Radar, ReferenceLine, Area, ComposedChart, Scatter
} from 'recharts';

const QuantDashboard = () => {
  const [showKeyNotes, setShowKeyNotes] = useState(false);

  // ============================================================
  // POPULATE WITH STOCK-SPECIFIC DATA FROM ANALYSIS
  // ============================================================
  
  const ticker = "TICKER";  // Replace
  const companyName = "Company Name";  // Replace
  const recommendation = "BUY";  // BUY, HOLD, SELL, SPECULATIVE BUY
  const analysisDate = "December 6, 2025";  // Current date

  const metrics = {
    // Price & Valuation - from analysis
    price: 100.00,
    marketCap: '€10B',
    trailingPE: 20.0,
    forwardPE: 18.0,
    subsectorTypicalPE: 25.0,
    peg1Y: 1.2,           // NEW: 1-Year Forward PEG
    peg5Y: 2.5,           // NEW: 5-Year PEG
    
    // Financial Performance - from 5-10 year analysis
    roe: 25.0,
    roa: 12.0,
    profitMargin: 20.0,
    opMargin: 25.0,
    grossMargin: 50.0,
    roic: 18.0,
    
    // Growth Metrics - from historical trends (USE REPORTED, not underlying)
    revGrowth: 15.0,      // REPORTED revenue growth YoY
    earnGrowth: 20.0,     // REPORTED earnings growth YoY
    epsTTM: 5.00,
    forwardEPS: 5.50,
    growthCapped: 10.0,   // NEW: Capped sustainable growth estimate
    growthUncapped: 22.0, // NEW: Headline analyst growth estimate
    analystTarget: 120.00,
    
    // Risk Indicators - from advanced metrics section
    crs: 0.40,            // Consolidated Risk Score (0-1 scale)
    debtEquity: 0.50,
    fScore: 7,            // Piotroski F-Score
    zScore: 4.0,          // Altman Z-Score
    mScore: -2.5,         // Beneish M-Score
    valueTrapScore: 25,   // NEW: 0-100, LOWER = genuine, HIGHER = trap
    valueTrapLabel: 'Genuine', // NEW: Genuine/Caution/Trap
    maxDrawdown: -30.0,   // 5-year max drawdown %
    
    // Liquidity & FCF - from cash flow analysis
    currentRatio: 1.5,
    totalCash: '€2B',
    totalDebt: '€1B',
    fcfGrowth5Y: 12.0,    // 5-year smoothed growth
    fcfYield: 5.0,
    fcfMargin: 18.5,      // NEW: FCF / Revenue %
    payoutRatio: 30.0,
    
    // Insider & Sentiment - from SEC Form 4 or use "N/A" if unavailable
    insBuys: 0,           // From SEC Form 4 - use actual count or "N/A"
    insSells: 0,          // From SEC Form 4 - use actual count or "N/A"
    netShares: 'N/A',     // From SEC Form 4 - use actual or "N/A"
    shortInterest: 2.5,   // From FINRA/exchange - use actual or "N/A"
    newsSentiment: 0.25,  // -1 to +1 scale
    newsArticleCount: 15, // Recent article count
    
    // Beta & Volatility
    beta: 1.0,            // Stock beta
    vol1Y: 25.0,          // 1-Year volatility %
    
    // Quality Scores - from consolidated scoring
    cqvs: 75.0,           // Consolidated Quality & Valuation Score
    label: 'Quality Growth', // Elite/Compounder/Quality Growth/etc
    valuation: 70.0,      // 0-100
    quality: 80.0,        // 0-100
    strength: 75.0,       // 0-100
    integrity: 85.0,      // 0-100
    
    // Moat & Other
    buffettMoat: 8,       // 0-10 scale (renamed from moat)
    greenblattEY: 6.5,    // NEW: Earnings Yield %
    greenblattROC: 22.0,  // NEW: Return on Capital %
    earningsPredict: 70,  // Earnings Predictability 0-100
    completeness: 85,     // Data completeness 0-100
    dataQuality: 'High',  // High/Medium/Low
    divYield: 1.5,
    stockType: 'Growth',  // Growth/Value/Cyclical/Defensive
    sector: 'Technology',
    industry: 'Software',
    
    // NEW: Investor Persona Scores (0-10 scale each)
    buffettScore: 7.5,    // Durable competitive advantage seeker
    mungerScore: 6.8,     // Inversion thinker, risk avoider
    dalioScore: 7.2,      // All-weather, cycle resilient
    lynchScore: 8.0,      // GARP - Growth at Reasonable Price
    grahamScore: 5.5,     // Deep value, margin of safety
    greenblattScore: 6.0, // Magic Formula (EY + ROC)
    templetonScore: 4.5,  // Contrarian, global value
    sorosScore: 3.0,      // Reflexivity, macro trends
    
    // NEW: Valuation Lines for Charts
    marketValueCurrent: 95.00,
    intrinsicValueCurrent: 110.00,
    marketValueNextYear: 105.00,
    intrinsicValueNextYear: 120.00,
    unrestrictedMarketValueCurrent: 125.00,
    unrestrictedMarketValueNextYear: 140.00,
    
    // Valuation Assessment (for indicator below forecast)
    valuationPercent: 15,       // Positive = undervalued, negative = overvalued
    valuationLabel: 'Undervalued', // Undervalued/Fairly Valued/Overvalued
  };

  // TOP NEWS Headlines - Format: pipe-separated with dates at END in brackets
  const topNews = [
    { headline: 'Company announces Q4 guidance above expectations', date: '05 Dec 2025' },
    { headline: 'New product launch receives positive analyst coverage', date: '28 Nov 2025' },
    { headline: 'Strategic partnership announced with major cloud provider', date: '15 Nov 2025' },
    { headline: 'Q3 earnings beat estimates, revenue up 18% YoY', date: '02 Nov 2025' },
    { headline: 'Management presents at investor conference, reaffirms outlook', date: '20 Oct 2025' },
  ];
  
  // Format TOP NEWS as pipe-separated string with dates at END
  const topNewsString = topNews.map(n => `${n.headline} [${n.date}]`).join(' | ');

  // Historical Price Data (10 years with multiple valuation lines)
  const priceHistory = [
    { date: '2016', price: 25, totalReturn: 28, marketValueCurrent: 27, intrinsicValueCurrent: 30, marketValueNextYear: 29, intrinsicValueNextYear: 32, analystTarget: 30, unrestrictedCurrent: 28, unrestrictedNextYear: 31 },
    { date: '2017', price: 35, totalReturn: 40, marketValueCurrent: 38, intrinsicValueCurrent: 42, marketValueNextYear: 40, intrinsicValueNextYear: 45, analystTarget: 42, unrestrictedCurrent: 40, unrestrictedNextYear: 44 },
    { date: '2018', price: 45, totalReturn: 52, marketValueCurrent: 48, intrinsicValueCurrent: 55, marketValueNextYear: 52, intrinsicValueNextYear: 60, analystTarget: 55, unrestrictedCurrent: 52, unrestrictedNextYear: 58 },
    { date: '2019', price: 55, totalReturn: 65, marketValueCurrent: 58, intrinsicValueCurrent: 68, marketValueNextYear: 62, intrinsicValueNextYear: 72, analystTarget: 65, unrestrictedCurrent: 65, unrestrictedNextYear: 72 },
    { date: '2020', price: 50, totalReturn: 62, marketValueCurrent: 55, intrinsicValueCurrent: 65, marketValueNextYear: 60, intrinsicValueNextYear: 70, analystTarget: 62, unrestrictedCurrent: 62, unrestrictedNextYear: 70 },
    { date: '2021', price: 75, totalReturn: 95, marketValueCurrent: 80, intrinsicValueCurrent: 90, marketValueNextYear: 85, intrinsicValueNextYear: 98, analystTarget: 90, unrestrictedCurrent: 92, unrestrictedNextYear: 105 },
    { date: '2022', price: 65, totalReturn: 85, marketValueCurrent: 72, intrinsicValueCurrent: 85, marketValueNextYear: 78, intrinsicValueNextYear: 92, analystTarget: 82, unrestrictedCurrent: 85, unrestrictedNextYear: 95 },
    { date: '2023', price: 80, totalReturn: 105, marketValueCurrent: 85, intrinsicValueCurrent: 100, marketValueNextYear: 92, intrinsicValueNextYear: 108, analystTarget: 98, unrestrictedCurrent: 100, unrestrictedNextYear: 115 },
    { date: '2024', price: 95, totalReturn: 125, marketValueCurrent: 100, intrinsicValueCurrent: 115, marketValueNextYear: 108, intrinsicValueNextYear: 125, analystTarget: 115, unrestrictedCurrent: 120, unrestrictedNextYear: 135 },
    { date: '2025', price: 100, totalReturn: 135, marketValueCurrent: 105, intrinsicValueCurrent: 120, marketValueNextYear: 115, intrinsicValueNextYear: 132, analystTarget: 125, unrestrictedCurrent: 130, unrestrictedNextYear: 145 },
  ];

  // 1 Year Price with 6-Month Forecast, MAs, and Bollinger Bands
  const oneYearData = [
    { date: "Jan'25", price: 90, ma50: 88, ma200: 85, upperBand: 98, lowerBand: 82, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null },
    { date: "Mar'25", price: 88, ma50: 89, ma200: 86, upperBand: 96, lowerBand: 80, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null },
    { date: "May'25", price: 95, ma50: 91, ma200: 87, upperBand: 102, lowerBand: 84, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null },
    { date: "Jul'25", price: 92, ma50: 92, ma200: 88, upperBand: 100, lowerBand: 84, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null },
    { date: "Sep'25", price: 98, ma50: 94, ma200: 90, upperBand: 106, lowerBand: 86, forecast: null, ci95Upper: null, ci95Lower: null },
    { date: "Nov'25", price: 100, ma50: 96, ma200: 92, upperBand: 108, lowerBand: 88, forecast: 100, ci95Upper: 108, ci95Lower: 92 },
    { date: "Jan'26", price: null, ma50: null, ma200: null, upperBand: null, lowerBand: null, forecast: 108, ci95Upper: 120, ci95Lower: 96 },
    { date: "Mar'26", price: null, ma50: null, ma200: null, upperBand: null, lowerBand: null, forecast: 115, ci95Upper: 130, ci95Lower: 100 },
  ];

  // NEW: Ichimoku Cloud Data (6-month view with signal markers)
  const ichimokuData = [
    { date: 'Jun', price: 88, tenkan: 87, kijun: 85, senkouA: 84, senkouB: 82, chikou: 85, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null },
    { date: 'Jul', price: 92, tenkan: 90, kijun: 87, senkouA: 86, senkouB: 84, chikou: 90, tkCrossMarker: 92, kumoTwistMarker: null }, // TK Bullish Cross
    { date: 'Aug', price: 95, tenkan: 93, kijun: 90, senkouA: 89, senkouB: 86, chikou: 93, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null },
    { date: 'Sep', price: 98, tenkan: 96, kijun: 93, senkouA: 92, senkouB: 88, chikou: 96, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: 92 }, // Kumo Twist Bullish
    { date: 'Oct', price: 96, tenkan: 97, kijun: 95, senkouA: 94, senkouB: 90, chikou: 94, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null },
    { date: 'Nov', price: 100, tenkan: 98, kijun: 96, senkouA: 95, senkouB: 92, chikou: 98, tkCrossMarker: null, kumoTwistMarker: null },
  ];

  // NEW: Ichimoku Signals Summary
  const ichimokuSignals = {
    tkCross: 'TK Bullish Cross',
    kumoTwist: 'Kumo Twist Bullish',
    priceVsCloud: 'Above Cloud (Bullish)',
  };

  // MACD Data (recent 6 months)
  const macdData = [
    { date: 'Jun', macd: 0.5, signal: 0.3, histogram: 0.2 },
    { date: 'Jul', macd: 1.2, signal: 0.6, histogram: 0.6 },
    { date: 'Aug', macd: 1.5, signal: 1.0, histogram: 0.5 },
    { date: 'Sep', macd: 1.8, signal: 1.3, histogram: 0.5 },
    { date: 'Oct', macd: 1.2, signal: 1.4, histogram: -0.2 },
    { date: 'Nov', macd: 0.8, signal: 1.2, histogram: -0.4 },
  ];

  // RSI Data (recent 6 months)
  const rsiData = [
    { date: 'Jun', rsi: 45 },
    { date: 'Jul', rsi: 55 },
    { date: 'Aug', rsi: 62 },
    { date: 'Sep', rsi: 68 },
    { date: 'Oct', rsi: 58 },
    { date: 'Nov', rsi: 55 },
  ];

  // Radar Chart Data (normalize all to 0-100 scale)
  const radarData = [
    { metric: 'Rev Growth', value: 70, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'Op Margin', value: 75, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'Gross Margin', value: 65, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'Profit Margin', value: 60, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'ROE', value: 70, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'Risk (CRS)', value: 60, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'Beta Score', value: 70, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'P/Market Disc', value: 50, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'Moat', value: 80, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'FCF Growth', value: 55, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'ROA', value: 65, fullMark: 100 },
    { metric: 'Earn Growth', value: 75, fullMark: 100 },
  ];

  // Key Notes Content - from Bull/Bear case analysis
  const bullCase = {
    target: "€130-150",  // Bull case price target
    points: [
      "Strong revenue growth momentum",
      "Expanding margins",
      "Market leadership position",
      "Favorable industry tailwinds",
      "Strong balance sheet"
    ]
  };

  const bearCase = {
    target: "€70-80",  // Bear case price target
    points: [
      "Valuation compression risk",
      "Competitive pressures",
      "Macro sensitivity",
      "Execution risks",
      "Key person dependency"
    ]
  };

  const entryStrategy = {
    idealEntry: "€90-95",  // From Entry Strategy section
    currentEntry: "€100 acceptable",
    target: "€120 (+20%)",  // 12-month target
    stopLoss: "€85 (-15%)",  // Stop loss
    positionSize: "2-3%"  // Recommended allocation
  };

  // ============================================================
  // COMPONENT CODE (Standard - use as-is)
  // ============================================================

  // Helper: Value Trap color (LOWER = genuine = green, HIGHER = trap = red)
  const getValueTrapColor = (score) => {
    if (score < 40) return 'bg-green-100 border-green-400 text-green-800';
    if (score < 60) return 'bg-yellow-100 border-yellow-400 text-yellow-800';
    retur