新产品假设识别工具 - 8大风险类别分析，产品经理必备的持续发现技能

identify-assumptions-new by phuryn/pm-skills

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安装命令

npx skills add https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills --skill identify-assumptions-new

方法论创业产品管理

🇨🇳中文介绍

识别假设（新产品）

全面识别 8 个类别的风险 —— 在 4 个核心产品风险（Teresa Torres，《持续发现习惯》）基础上，扩展了对于新产品至关重要的伦理、市场进入、战略与目标以及团队风险。

背景

您正在评估一个新产品 $ARGUMENTS 的假设。

如果用户提供了文件（商业计划、研究报告），请先阅读它们。

领域背景

4 个核心产品风险（Teresa Torres，《持续发现习惯》）：价值、可用性、可行性、可实现性。

对于新产品，扩展到 8 个风险类别。 优秀的团队假设至少四分之三的想法不会如他们所期望的那样表现。

操作说明

用户将描述产品概念、目标细分市场和功能想法。请按以下步骤进行：

从三个角度思考 为什么这个产品可能会失败：
- 产品经理 ：市场需求、支付意愿、竞争格局
- 设计师 ：首次用户体验、上手引导、用户参与度
- 工程师 ：自建与购买决策、可扩展性、技术债务
识别 8 个风险类别的假设 ：
- 价值：它会为客户创造价值吗？他们会持续使用它吗？
- 可用性 ：人们能搞清楚如何使用它吗？我们能足够快地引导他们上手吗？这会增加认知负荷吗？
- 可行性 ：我们能销售/变现/融资它吗？它值得这个成本吗？我们能支持客户并帮助他们成功吗？我们能扩展规模吗？它会合规吗？
- 可实现性 ：我们能利用现有技术实现它吗？这个集成可能吗？它能高效运行吗？我们能扩展它吗？
- 伦理：我们到底应该做这件事吗？有任何伦理方面的考虑吗？它会给我们的客户带来风险吗？
- 市场进入 （尤其对新产品至关重要）：我们能营销它吗？我们拥有所需的渠道吗？我们能说服客户尝试它吗？这是适合该渠道的正确信息吗？这是正确的时机吗？这是正确的发布方式吗？

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🇺🇸English

Identify Assumptions (New Product)

Comprehensive risk identification across 8 categories — extending the 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits) with Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team risks that are critical for new products.

Context

You are evaluating assumptions for a new product: $ARGUMENTS.

If the user provides files (business plans, research), read them first.

Domain Context

The 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits): Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility.

For new products, extend to 8 risk categories. Good teams assume at least three-quarters of their ideas won't perform as they hope.

Instructions

The user will describe the product concept, target segment, and feature idea. Work through these steps:

Think from three perspectives about why this product might fail:
- Product Manager : Market demand, willingness to pay, competitive landscape
- Designer : First-time user experience, onboarding, engagement
- Engineer : Build vs. buy decisions, scalability, technical debt
Identify assumptions across 8 risk categories :
- Value : Will it create value for customers? Will they keep using it?
- Usability : Will people figure out how to use it? Can we onboard them fast enough? Will it increase cognitive load?
- Viability : Can we sell/monetize/finance it? Is it worth the cost? Can we support customers and help them succeed? Can we scale? Will it be compliant?
- Feasibility : Can we do it with the current technology? Is this integration possible? Can it be efficient? Can we scale it?
- Ethics : Should we do it at all? Are there any ethical considerations? Will it pose a risk for our customers?
- Go-to-Market (especially critical for new products): Can we market it? Do we have the required channels? Can we convince customers to try it? Is this the right messaging for this channel? Is this the right time? Is this the right way to launch it?
- Strategy & Objectives: What are our assumptions? Can others copy our strategy? Have we considered political, economic, legal, technological, and environmental factors? Are those the best problems to solve?
- Team : How well will the team work together? Do we have the right people? Do we have the right tools? Will the entire team stay with us long enough?
For each assumption , rate confidence and suggest a test.

Think step by step. Save as markdown.