polymarket-prediction-market by axwelbrand-byte/arbibot
npx skills add https://github.com/axwelbrand-byte/arbibot --skill polymarket-prediction-market了解 Polymarket 的预测市场——二元事件合约、CLOB 定价、订单簿、条件代币和 API 集成。
Polymarket 在 Polygon 上作为一个去中心化预测市场运行,使用 USDC:
Condition (Event)
└── Market
├── YES Token (token_id)
└── NO Token (token_id)
Polymarket 市场数据中的关键字段:
Understand Polymarket's prediction markets—binary event contracts, CLOB pricing, order books, conditional tokens, and API integration.
Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market on Polygon using USDC:
Condition (Event)
└── Market
├── YES Token (token_id)
└── NO Token (token_id)
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| 字段 | 描述 |
|---|---|
condition_id | 条件/事件的唯一标识符 |
question | 市场问题文本 |
tokens | 结果代币(YES/NO)数组 |
token_id | 每个结果代币的唯一 ID |
outcome | 代币结果名称("Yes" 或 "No") |
price | 当前中间市场价格($0.00-$1.00) |
volume | 以 USDC 计的总交易量 |
liquidity | 订单簿中的可用流动性 |
end_date_iso | 市场停止交易的时间 |
active | 市场当前是否可交易 |
closed | 市场是否已关闭 |
resolved | 结算状态 |
resolution | 已解决时的最终结果 |
Polymarket 使用中央限价订单簿(CLOB):
Order Book for "YES" Token
--------------------------
BIDS (Buy Orders) | ASKS (Sell Orders)
$0.62 - 500 shares | $0.64 - 300 shares
$0.61 - 1000 shares | $0.65 - 800 shares
$0.60 - 2000 shares | $0.66 - 1500 shares
| 类型 | 描述 |
|---|---|
| GTC | 有效直至取消 - 保持有效直至成交或取消 |
| GTD | 有效直至日期 - 在指定时间过期 |
| FOK | 全部成交否则取消 - 必须全部成交否则取消 |
end_date_iso 停止接受订单| 环境 | URL |
|---|---|
| CLOB API | https://clob.polymarket.com |
| Gamma API | https://gamma-api.polymarket.com |
| 端点 | 描述 |
|---|---|
GET /markets | 列出所有市场 |
GET /markets/{condition_id} | 获取特定市场 |
GET /book | 获取代币的订单簿 |
GET /price | 获取当前价格 |
GET /midpoint | 获取中间市场价格 |
| 端点 | 描述 |
|---|---|
POST /order | 下新订单 |
DELETE /order/{order_id} | 取消订单 |
GET /orders | 获取用户的未成交订单 |
GET /trades | 获取用户的交易历史 |
Polymarket 使用 EIP-712 签名进行认证:
Headers:
POLY_ADDRESS: <wallet_address>
POLY_SIGNATURE: <eip712_signature>
POLY_TIMESTAMP: <unix_timestamp>
POLY_NONCE: <random_nonce>
连接到 wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/ 以获取:
price - 实时价格更新book - 订单簿变动trades - 交易执行通知{
"condition_id": "0x1234...",
"question": "Will Team Liquid win the CS2 Major?",
"tokens": [
{
"token_id": "12345",
"outcome": "Yes",
"price": 0.65
},
{
"token_id": "12346",
"outcome": "No",
"price": 0.35
}
],
"volume": "150000.00",
"liquidity": "25000.00",
"end_date_iso": "2024-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false
}
{
"token_id": "12345",
"bids": [
{"price": "0.64", "size": "500"},
{"price": "0.63", "size": "1000"}
],
"asks": [
{"price": "0.66", "size": "300"},
{"price": "0.67", "size": "800"}
]
}
Polymarket 提供各种体育和电子竞技博彩市场。理解命名约定和市场结构对于跨平台匹配市场至关重要。
| 类别 | 示例 |
|---|---|
| 电子竞技 | CS2, League of Legends, Valorant, Dota 2, Call of Duty |
| 篮球 | NBA 比赛、季后赛、锦标赛 |
| 足球 | 英超联赛、欧足联、欧冠联赛、世界杯 |
| 美式橄榄球 | NFL 比赛、超级碗 |
| 网球 | ATP, WTA, 大满贯(温网、美网等) |
| 综合格斗/搏击 | UFC 赛事、Bellator |
Polymarket 体育市场通常遵循以下模式:
Match Winner:
"Will [Team A] beat [Team B]?"
"Will [Team A] win against [Team B]?"
"[Team A] vs [Team B] - Winner"
Tournament Winner:
"Will [Team/Player] win [Tournament]?"
"[Tournament] Winner: [Team/Player]"
Player Props:
"Will [Player] score [X] points?"
"Will [Player] get [X] kills?"
跨平台匹配市场时,请注意以下变体:
| Polymarket | Kalshi | 备注 |
|---|---|---|
| Team Liquid | Team Liquid, TL | 缩写 |
| G2 Esports | G2, G2 eSports | 空格/大小写 |
| FaZe Clan | FaZe, Faze Clan | 大小写敏感 |
| Natus Vincere | NaVi, Na'Vi | 常见昵称 |
| Manchester United | Man United, Man U | 简称 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | LA Lakers, Lakers | 城市缩写 |
Market formats:
"Will Team Liquid win vs FaZe Clan?"
"Team Liquid vs FaZe - CS2 Major"
"CS2 Major Champion: Team Liquid"
Common tournaments:
- Major Championships (Copenhagen, Shanghai)
- ESL Pro League
- BLAST Premier
- IEM (Intel Extreme Masters)
Market formats:
"Will T1 win Worlds 2024?"
"T1 vs Gen.G - LCK Finals"
"League of Legends World Champion"
Common tournaments:
- Worlds (World Championship)
- MSI (Mid-Season Invitational)
- LCK, LEC, LCS (Regional leagues)
Market formats:
"Will Sentinels win VCT Champions?"
"Sentinels vs LOUD - VCT Finals"
Common tournaments:
- VCT Champions
- VCT Masters
- Regional Challengers
Market formats:
"Will OpTic win CDL Championship?"
"OpTic vs FaZe - CDL Major"
Common tournaments:
- CDL (Call of Duty League) Majors
- CDL Championship
- Warzone events
Market formats:
"Will the Lakers beat the Celtics?"
"Lakers vs Celtics - NBA Finals Game 1"
"NBA Champion 2024"
Identifiers:
- Team city + name (Los Angeles Lakers)
- Just team name (Lakers)
- Abbreviations (LAL)
Market formats:
"Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?"
"Man City vs Arsenal - Premier League"
"Champions League Winner 2024"
Leagues/Tournaments:
- Premier League (England)
- La Liga (Spain)
- Serie A (Italy)
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- World Cup
Market formats:
"Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles?"
"Chiefs vs Eagles - Super Bowl"
"Super Bowl LVIII Winner"
Identifiers:
- City + name (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Just name (Chiefs)
- Abbreviations (KC)
Market formats:
"Will Djokovic win Wimbledon?"
"Djokovic vs Alcaraz - Wimbledon Final"
"US Open Men's Singles Winner"
Tournaments:
- Grand Slams: Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open
- ATP/WTA Masters events
Market formats:
"Will Jon Jones beat Stipe Miocic?"
"Jones vs Miocic - UFC 309"
"UFC Heavyweight Champion after UFC 309"
Identifiers:
- Fighter full name
- Last name only
- Nickname ("Bones" for Jon Jones)
以编程方式查找体育市场:
// Filter by tags/categories
GET /markets?tag=sports
GET /markets?tag=esports
GET /markets?tag=nba
GET /markets?tag=cs2
// Search by keywords in question
GET /markets?search=NBA
GET /markets?search=Team%20Liquid
GET /markets?search=UFC
// Filter active sports markets
GET /markets?active=true&tag=sports
对于跨平台套利,使用以下匹配方法:
标准化队伍/选手名称
FaZe Clan → faze clanTL → team liquidNaVi → natus vincere提取关键实体
基于相似度匹配
验证市场类型
Polymarket Market:
Question: "Will Team Liquid beat G2 Esports?"
YES price: $0.55
End date: 2024-03-15
Kalshi Market:
Title: "Team Liquid vs G2 - CS2 Major Semifinal"
YES price: $0.52
NO price: $0.51
Matching confidence: HIGH
- Same teams (Team Liquid, G2)
- Similar timeframe
- Both match-winner markets
Arbitrage check:
Polymarket NO: $0.45
Kalshi YES: $0.52
Total: $0.97 → $0.03 profit potential
回答关于 Polymarket 的问题时:
对于与 Kalshi 的跨平台套利:
| 概念 | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| 结算 | $1.00 USDC | $1.00 USD |
| 订单类型 | CLOB | CLOB |
| 货币 | USDC (Polygon) | USD |
| 认证 | EIP-712 签名 | RSA 签名 |
| 费用 | 约 1-2% 吃单费 | 可变/二次方 |
当总成本 < $1.00 时,跨平台买入相反的结果:
Example:
Polymarket YES @ $0.45
Kalshi NO @ $0.48
Total Cost: $0.93
Guaranteed Profit: $0.07 (one side pays $1.00)
"YES 代币以 $0.72 交易意味着市场集体估计该结果发生的概率为 72%。"
"您以 $0.65 买入 100 份 YES 份额的限价订单将保留在订单簿中,直到有人以该价格或更低价格卖出。"
"如果 Team Liquid 获胜,您的 YES 代币将以每个 $1.00 结算。如果他们输了,这些代币将变得一文不值,但任何 NO 代币将支付 $1.00。"
每周安装数
174
代码仓库
首次出现
2026年1月22日
安全审计
安装于
gemini-cli144
opencode143
codex139
github-copilot133
cursor130
kimi-cli119
Key fields in Polymarket market data:
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
condition_id | Unique identifier for the condition/event |
question | The market question text |
tokens | Array of outcome tokens (YES/NO) |
token_id | Unique ID for each outcome token |
outcome | Token outcome name ("Yes" or "No") |
price | Current mid-market price ($0.00-$1.00) |
volume | Total trading volume in USDC |
liquidity | Available liquidity in the order book |
end_date_iso | When the market closes for trading |
active | Whether market is currently tradeable |
closed | Whether market has been resolved |
resolved | Settlement status |
resolution | Final outcome if resolved |
Polymarket uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) :
Order Book for "YES" Token
--------------------------
BIDS (Buy Orders) | ASKS (Sell Orders)
$0.62 - 500 shares | $0.64 - 300 shares
$0.61 - 1000 shares | $0.65 - 800 shares
$0.60 - 2000 shares | $0.66 - 1500 shares
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
| GTC | Good-Til-Cancelled - stays until filled or cancelled |
| GTD | Good-Til-Date - expires at specified time |
| FOK | Fill-Or-Kill - must fill entirely or cancel |
end_date_iso| Environment | URL |
|---|---|
| CLOB API | https://clob.polymarket.com |
| Gamma API | https://gamma-api.polymarket.com |
| Endpoint | Description |
|---|---|
GET /markets | List all markets |
GET /markets/{condition_id} | Get specific market |
GET /book | Get order book for a token |
GET /price | Get current prices |
GET /midpoint | Get mid-market price |
| Endpoint | Description |
|---|---|
POST /order | Place a new order |
DELETE /order/{order_id} | Cancel an order |
GET /orders | Get user's open orders |
GET /trades | Get user's trade history |
Polymarket uses EIP-712 signatures for authentication:
Headers:
POLY_ADDRESS: <wallet_address>
POLY_SIGNATURE: <eip712_signature>
POLY_TIMESTAMP: <unix_timestamp>
POLY_NONCE: <random_nonce>
Connect to wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/ for:
price - Real-time price updatesbook - Order book changestrades - Trade execution notifications{
"condition_id": "0x1234...",
"question": "Will Team Liquid win the CS2 Major?",
"tokens": [
{
"token_id": "12345",
"outcome": "Yes",
"price": 0.65
},
{
"token_id": "12346",
"outcome": "No",
"price": 0.35
}
],
"volume": "150000.00",
"liquidity": "25000.00",
"end_date_iso": "2024-03-15T00:00:00Z",
"active": true,
"closed": false
}
{
"token_id": "12345",
"bids": [
{"price": "0.64", "size": "500"},
{"price": "0.63", "size": "1000"}
],
"asks": [
{"price": "0.66", "size": "300"},
{"price": "0.67", "size": "800"}
]
}
Polymarket hosts various sports and esports betting markets. Understanding the naming conventions and market structures is critical for matching markets across platforms.
| Category | Examples |
|---|---|
| Esports | CS2, League of Legends, Valorant, Dota 2, Call of Duty |
| Basketball | NBA games, playoffs, championships |
| Soccer | Premier League, UEFA, Champions League, World Cup |
| American Football | NFL games, Super Bowl |
| Tennis | ATP, WTA, Grand Slams (Wimbledon, US Open, etc.) |
| MMA/Fighting | UFC events, Bellator |
Polymarket sports markets typically follow these patterns:
Match Winner:
"Will [Team A] beat [Team B]?"
"Will [Team A] win against [Team B]?"
"[Team A] vs [Team B] - Winner"
Tournament Winner:
"Will [Team/Player] win [Tournament]?"
"[Tournament] Winner: [Team/Player]"
Player Props:
"Will [Player] score [X] points?"
"Will [Player] get [X] kills?"
When matching markets across platforms, watch for these variations:
| Polymarket | Kalshi | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Team Liquid | Team Liquid, TL | Abbreviations |
| G2 Esports | G2, G2 eSports | Spacing/capitalization |
| FaZe Clan | FaZe, Faze Clan | Case sensitivity |
| Natus Vincere | NaVi, Na'Vi | Common nicknames |
| Manchester United | Man United, Man U | Shortened names |
| Los Angeles Lakers | LA Lakers, Lakers | City abbreviations |
Market formats:
"Will Team Liquid win vs FaZe Clan?"
"Team Liquid vs FaZe - CS2 Major"
"CS2 Major Champion: Team Liquid"
Common tournaments:
- Major Championships (Copenhagen, Shanghai)
- ESL Pro League
- BLAST Premier
- IEM (Intel Extreme Masters)
Market formats:
"Will T1 win Worlds 2024?"
"T1 vs Gen.G - LCK Finals"
"League of Legends World Champion"
Common tournaments:
- Worlds (World Championship)
- MSI (Mid-Season Invitational)
- LCK, LEC, LCS (Regional leagues)
Market formats:
"Will Sentinels win VCT Champions?"
"Sentinels vs LOUD - VCT Finals"
Common tournaments:
- VCT Champions
- VCT Masters
- Regional Challengers
Market formats:
"Will OpTic win CDL Championship?"
"OpTic vs FaZe - CDL Major"
Common tournaments:
- CDL (Call of Duty League) Majors
- CDL Championship
- Warzone events
Market formats:
"Will the Lakers beat the Celtics?"
"Lakers vs Celtics - NBA Finals Game 1"
"NBA Champion 2024"
Identifiers:
- Team city + name (Los Angeles Lakers)
- Just team name (Lakers)
- Abbreviations (LAL)
Market formats:
"Will Manchester City beat Arsenal?"
"Man City vs Arsenal - Premier League"
"Champions League Winner 2024"
Leagues/Tournaments:
- Premier League (England)
- La Liga (Spain)
- Serie A (Italy)
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- UEFA Champions League
- UEFA Europa League
- World Cup
Market formats:
"Will the Chiefs beat the Eagles?"
"Chiefs vs Eagles - Super Bowl"
"Super Bowl LVIII Winner"
Identifiers:
- City + name (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Just name (Chiefs)
- Abbreviations (KC)
Market formats:
"Will Djokovic win Wimbledon?"
"Djokovic vs Alcaraz - Wimbledon Final"
"US Open Men's Singles Winner"
Tournaments:
- Grand Slams: Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open
- ATP/WTA Masters events
Market formats:
"Will Jon Jones beat Stipe Miocic?"
"Jones vs Miocic - UFC 309"
"UFC Heavyweight Champion after UFC 309"
Identifiers:
- Fighter full name
- Last name only
- Nickname ("Bones" for Jon Jones)
To find sports markets programmatically:
// Filter by tags/categories
GET /markets?tag=sports
GET /markets?tag=esports
GET /markets?tag=nba
GET /markets?tag=cs2
// Search by keywords in question
GET /markets?search=NBA
GET /markets?search=Team%20Liquid
GET /markets?search=UFC
// Filter active sports markets
GET /markets?active=true&tag=sports
For cross-platform arbitrage, use this matching approach:
Normalize team/player names
FaZe Clan → faze clanTL → team liquidNaVi → natus vincereExtract key entities
Match by similarity
Verify market type
Polymarket Market:
Question: "Will Team Liquid beat G2 Esports?"
YES price: $0.55
End date: 2024-03-15
Kalshi Market:
Title: "Team Liquid vs G2 - CS2 Major Semifinal"
YES price: $0.52
NO price: $0.51
Matching confidence: HIGH
- Same teams (Team Liquid, G2)
- Similar timeframe
- Both match-winner markets
Arbitrage check:
Polymarket NO: $0.45
Kalshi YES: $0.52
Total: $0.97 → $0.03 profit potential
When answering questions about Polymarket:
For cross-platform arbitrage with Kalshi:
| Concept | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Settlement | $1.00 USDC | $1.00 USD |
| Order Type | CLOB | CLOB |
| Currency | USDC (Polygon) | USD |
| Auth | EIP-712 Signatures | RSA Signatures |
| Fees | ~1-2% taker | Variable/Quadratic |
Buy opposing outcomes across platforms when total cost < $1.00:
Example:
Polymarket YES @ $0.45
Kalshi NO @ $0.48
Total Cost: $0.93
Guaranteed Profit: $0.07 (one side pays $1.00)
"The YES token trading at $0.72 means the market collectively estimates a 72% probability of this outcome occurring."
"Your limit order to buy 100 YES shares at $0.65 will sit in the order book until someone sells at that price or lower."
"If Team Liquid wins, your YES tokens settle at $1.00 each. If they lose, those tokens become worthless, but any NO tokens would pay out $1.00."
Weekly Installs
174
Repository
First Seen
Jan 22, 2026
Security Audits
Installed on
gemini-cli144
opencode143
codex139
github-copilot133
cursor130
kimi-cli119
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